Tom Brady is Washed
(This was written before Tom Brady signed with Tampa Bay, sorry Bucs fans)
With Covid-19 shutting down the sports world we turn to Tom Brady to lead the game-winning drive for content. For the first time in his storied career, Tom Brady is a free agent, and just like a desperate housewife with a hall-pass, he’s ready to mingle with richer and more handsome organizations. Tom Brady at 42 years of age presents an interesting situation as a player who, at times, was the best player in the league, but is coming off a career-worst season. For any of the teams exploring the possibility of signing Brady, proceed with extreme caution.
2019 being Tom Brady’s worst season ever is an open and shut case, and the areas of decline should cause concern for any of his suitors. Here are the categories where Brady was at his all-time worst: Adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A+), Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A+), Adjusted completion percentage (Cmp%+), Adjusted touchdown percentage (TD%+), and Adjusted passer rating (Rate+). (Why use adjusted stats? Well, Tom Brady has been playing since 2001 and passing stats have inflated massively in the years. Adjusted stats are based upon a league baseline with 100 as league average with higher being better.) Tom Brady was at his worst ever at generating yards, touchdowns, and completions. The only areas where he was not at his worst were Adjusted sack percentage (Sack%+) and Adjusted interception percentage (Int%+). Brady could avoid “negative plays” but struggled to generate “positive plays.” This really sounds like how you would expect a 42-year-old to play a sport where people end up getting paralyzed from colliding with another human.
Tom Brady is historically good. Some would think that his worst is still better than a lot of players out there right now. Yes, and, no. His worst season, 2019, is a great worst season to have, but it wouldn’t be considered good by anyone's standards (except maybe Bears fans), and barely mediocre if you are into making a bunch of excuses.
Brady is looking more and more like a league average or worse quarterback. Is it just one bad season?
It certainly looks like a slow decline that has picked up a little speed in 2019. Brady’s statistical trend has not been good since 2016, but from 2016 to 2018 Brady did win two super-bowls and a league MVP. If a player has such a high starting point sometimes it’s worth it to have them during their decline. However, Tom has been falling hard and fast.
Taking the decline, or improvement in some cases, and averaging each season since 2016 to 2019 we can see, hypothetically, where Tom Brady would be expected to be in 2020.
That’s not good. In the most layman’s terms ever, the bottom of the graph had to grow from 80 to 60 to fit in 2020’s numbers. To give some perspective here would be some of Tom Brady’s peers in each category, based upon their 2019 statistics.
AY/A+ : Mitchell Trubitsky & Dwayne Haskins- 82
ANY/A+ : Joe Flacco & Baker Mayfield- 87
Cmp%+ : Dwayne Haskins- 79
TD%+ : Andy Dalton- 83
Rate+ : Andy Dalton- 82
Sack%+ : Mason Rudolph- 112
Int%+ : Derek Carr- 112
The question for Tom Brady, and whoever ends up employing him, is how much is Tom Brady worth? When we look at Brady’s most recent level of production it seems clear that Brady is close to league average at Quarterback. Based upon the top 34 QB contracts the average QB is on a 4 year/$62 million contract and around 30 years old. Brady should be in line for $18-$20 million a season, with the number of seasons, realistically, not going beyond two years. Is Tom Brady, at 13 years older than the average NFL QB, worth $36 to $40 million for the next two seasons? Even more important, does Tom Brady think he is worth $36 to $40 million for the next two seasons? The answer to both of these questions is likely no, but unfortunately in diverging directions. Brady most certainly thinks he is better than average and I doubt many teams will line up to give a soon to be 43-year-old close to $20 million a year to see if he, “still has it?”, like Super-Tuesday Joe. Brady’s long-awaited free agency should be frosty as he searches for a top of the market contract with mid-level talent at this stage in his career.
Tom Brady has had maybe the greatest football career in history. It has been a career that has outlasted anyone’s wildest imaginations when he took over the Patriot’s for a concussed Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Brady, while good in his twenties, was even better in his thirties, with that continuing into his early forties. Brady has seen a serious decline in his play over the last three seasons. The idea that Brady, at 43, will see a bounce-back is doubtful. We tend to afford super-stars long leashes. If Brady plans on playing in 2020 he’ll likely join the long list of great athletes who held on for a bit too long. Watching an athlete’s twilight, as they cling to the one thing that defines them, is nothing but melancholy. Throws will become more and more errant, and mistakes will creep into unfathomable areas. The end is near in 2020. For Tom Brady that is, even if it feels like that for the world too.
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