The nature of professional football lends itself to quick and dramatic turnarounds. Teams can fortify their fortunes in a variety of fashions, from trades and player growth to retirements and injury, to cap casualties, the draft, and schematic overhauls, there are a multitude of avenues to improvement. The past few seasons the Buffalo Bills have been busy checking off these boxes and seem intent on contention in 2020. Last year, fielding a top-3 defense, the Bills reached double-digit wins for the first time in 20 years and finally gave the “Bills Mafia” something to divebomb burning tables to. In an effort to continue their upward trajectory, the Bills made a splash this offseason by trading for Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the hopes of unlocking their young quarterback, Josh Allen. While Diggs is a dynamic receiver, the Bills' best offense for 2020 should be looking to get everything possible out of Allen’s legs, not his arm.
Josh Allen is a massive human being. Standing 6’5 and weighing 237 pounds Allen could easily be confused with an offensive lineman from yesteryear. Allen is incredibly mobile for his size, and this unique pairing of brute force and agility has made him more valuable as a runner than a thrower. Through his first two seasons, Allen has completed 56.3% of his passes, averaged 184.4 yards per game and thrown for 30 touchdowns, but has rushed for 1141 yards on 5.8 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns. Statistically, Allen looks closer to being an elite running back than quarterback.
Making matters more bizarre, Allen has been at his best when scrambling. In his rookie season, he averaged 11 yards per scramble and followed that up with 7.3 yards. Allen’s career Yards per passing attempt is only 6.6 yards. The Bills’ offense has been at its best when Allen takes off running on broken passing plays. The West Coast offense popularized the idea of passing the ball to set up the run, but this is not what Bill Walsh had in mind. In the high-stakes world of NFL coaching, it is not ideal to have an offense that works best when broken.
Allen is clearly a gifted runner based upon how he has performed as a scrambler. Which is what makes how poorly he has performed running the ball in non-scramble situations so surprising. Allen, over his career, has simultaneously picked up 9.2 yards per scramble for 820 yards, but only 3 yards per carry on designed rushes. The Bills offense has wasted two years of Allen’s unique skill set. For a team pushing in their chips to try and claim a Tom Brady-less AFC East an offensive revamp centered on Quarterback’s best attribute might be a good idea, and fortunately for the Bills, run happy quarterbacks are no stranger to success.
The Bills surely noticed how the Ravens utilized Lamar Jackson to decimate the league. In 2019, Jackson threw for 3,127 yards, rushed for another 1,206, and scored a combined 43 touchdowns en route to the League MVP and a 14-2 record. It was hard to ignore how the Raven’s offense looked to make Jackson as lethal as possible. The Ravens featured the league’s most RPOs (Run-Pass-Option) and, in the process, hitched their wagon to Jackson’s legs. This reliance on a quarterback’s rushing abilities led the Ravens to the league’s most efficient offense and best rushing attack. Their belief in Jackson’s legs forced defenses to commit men to running lanes, in fear of Jackson gashing them for easy yards, only to open up more opportunities for him to attack them through the air. The Ravens picked up more RPO yards than any other team, while the Bills were below league average in just about every RPO and offensive metric. The Ravens bought into their quarterback’s strengths in order to unlock their best offense, and while Josh Allen might not remind anyone of Lamar Jackson, he only trails Lamar Jackson in yards per scramble by .2 yards (9.4 to 9.2), or about 7 inches.
The Bills are riding high heading into 2020. Coming off of a playoff appearance, the Bills are staring out at an improved roster and weakened division. How far they go will come down to how Josh Allen performs. At this stage in his career, Allen is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. The Ravens doubled down on their mobile quarterback and were rewarded handsomely. For the Bills, reaching their ceiling will come down to them committing to Allen’s legs and not trying to rest on his shoulder.
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