Houston we Have a Problem:
How Westbrook for Paul was a Disaster from the Beginning
When the Houston Rockets walked off the court following another defeat to the Golden State Warriors in the summer of 2019 they showed their weariness to coming up short. In a last-ditch effort to finally surround James Harden with enough talent to snag that elusive championship, the Rockets traded Chris Paul along with a cachet of assets to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Russell Westbrook. The idea of a dual MVP backcourt powering the Rockets to glory is certainly seductive, but as of the COVID-19 induced season hiatus, Houston sits at 40-24, the 6 seed in the West, and are owners of the same record as their summer trade partners the Thunder. The narrative at the time of the trade was that the Rockets had upgraded their roster. After about ¾ of the season, it is not clear the Rockets are any better than before and are arguably worse. The Rockets, already on the cusp of greatness, tried to push just a little bit higher and in the process might have cost themselves a chance at the championship they so covet.
First things first (Weekdays at 6:30 on FS1), Chris Paul is better at basketball than Russell Westbrook. While I imagine that this is a hot take for some, the gulf in production is staggeringly in favor of Paul. He holds a statistical edge in almost every phase of the game over Westbrook. The only areas where Westbrook beats Paul is in USG%, FTr, and TRB%. While Westbrook wildly gobbles up boxscore stats, Paul surgically dissects defenses. The contrast in style is like the difference between a symphony hall and a moshpit. As much fun as Westbrook is to watch he is not close to being the player Paul is.
(Top is Chris Paul, Bottom is Russell Westbrook = Better)
Paul’s superiority is in his efficiency, Westbrook’s is in his volume. Westbrook commands much more of the ball which has led to him having better counting stats than Paul. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Points per game. Westbrook has a career average of 23.2 PTS compared to Paul’s 18.5 PTS, but that’s on the back of 18.8 FGA to Paul’s 13.8. On a point per shot basis Paul beats Westbrook 1.34 to 1.23. If it’s a make or miss league then this is a blacktop brick from Houston.
While Chris Paul’s Hall of Fame credentials are unassailable, at 34 years old he is on the back half of his career. Westbrook meanwhile is only 31, and the conventional wisdom is that he has more high-value seasons left in the tank. We may treat mid-30’s NBA superstars like it’s Logan Run, but the reality is that most players, barring serious injury, have steady declines. Paul and Westbrook are not likely headed for a dramatic turn for the worse. What is more likely is a gradual degradation in production. So while Westbrook almost certainly has more remaining seasons than Paul, as you’ll see, it’s unlikely they’ll be more productive ones.
Both Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook conveniently entered the league at their age 20 seasons. Paul hit the ground running and performed at an All-Star level as a rookie before blossoming into an MVP caliber player at age 22 and maintaining that form for the next decade, before starting his slow decline. Westbrook, conversely, started slowly, but, just like Paul, made his first All-Star game in his age 22 seasons. Westbrook continued to play at a similar level from 22 to 26, before jump-starting a run of three consecutive MVP caliber seasons in 2014-15. While Paul is definitely in decline, so is Westbrook, and more concerning, his decline started much earlier in his career than Paul's. When their Win-Shares are compared, (10 Win shares usually leads to a top-10 season, 15 WS is top-3) on a year to year basis, Paul has been the superior player at almost every stage.
What is staggering is how good both Westbrook and Paul have been. Both have spent the majority of their career producing like a top-10 player, but Paul has spent much more time flirting with the top than Westbrook. If Russell Westbrook ages like Chris Paul he’ll be roughly the same player he was the last few seasons. The only problem for the Rockets is that Paul was a better player, to begin with. During his two year stint with the Rocket, he produced 16.8 WS in only 116 games, while Westbrook produced 16.9 WS in 153 games over the same time frame. Paul has shown that when on the court, he is still a better player than Westbrook. His Win/Shares per 48 minutes have outpaced Westbrook every season, and while his availability has waned in recent years his efficiency has remained incredible. With his lead over Westbrook being even more obvious.
Paul, for his career, has averaged .244 WS/48. Westbrook’s best single-season, 2015-16, was .245 WS/48. Paul, by starting higher, has much more room to fall. It is why only good players are able to play for 20 seasons. Paul won’t be an MVP in the 2020s, but Russell Westbrook won’t either, and over the next three seasons, there’s a better chance he’ll be the better of the two.
Looking back at his Houston years, Paul averaged .218 WS/48 over his tenure. Over that same period, Westbrook averaged .146 WS/48. In terms of efficiency both produced at about 90% of their career averages over the period, but Paul’s average season is 66% better than Westbrook’s (.244 WS/48 compared to .161 WS/48). In general, it’s better to have 90% of something that’s 66% better. From a production standpoint it seems that this trade was never going to be an upgrade for Houston, but, as in life, production, in the NBA, is relative to cost.
The most defensible component of the trade for Houston centered on Paul’s contract. Owed almost $80 million over the next two seasons (2019-20 & 2020-21) with a $44 million player option for the 2021-22 season, when he would be 37 years old, and you can see why the Rockets would explore trading Paul. The only problem is that Westbrook is owed almost the exact same amount of money over the same two seasons but with an additional year before he has a player option of $46 million for the 2022-23 season. The Rockets went from potentially owing a 34-year-old player $124 million over 3 years to definitely owing a 31 year old $123 million over 3 years with a likely fourth year at $46 million. In terms of money, Houston made out worse, and that’s even before draft capital is taken into account.
In order to get Westbrook from the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Rockets had to not only surrender Chris Paul but also first-round picks in 2024 and 2026 as well as the right to swap picks in 2021 and 2025. While there are some protections on the picks, that is an awful lot to give up for a player that is not better or cheaper. One could argue that 2024 and 2026 are a long way away, and they would be right, but draft picks can easily be used to get things for today. Whatever marginal upgrade they felt Westbrook and his contract gave them over Paul can easily be offset by what losing those picks as trade assets cost them. Houston’s trade of Paul for Westbrook, on its own, doesn’t look good for Houston, but neither Paul or Westbrook are what make Houston go. That distinction belongs to James Harden.
Harden is possibly the best player in the league and has been for some stretch. He has led the league in scoring the past three seasons and Win Shares 5 of the past 6. The only players in history to lead the league in Win Shares for 5 different seasons are Harden, Lebron James, Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, and Neil Johnston. Harden is an iso-heavy usage monster that produces on offense like Michael Jordan (seriously they have the same career offensive rating per 100 possessions at 118). He is the ultimate offensive force and should have the ball in his hands as much as possible, which makes acquiring Russell Westbrook an all the more baffling decision for the Rockets.
Over the past few seasons, James Harden and Russell Westbrook have been pushing the outer limits of Usage for an NBA player. Both have led the league in the metric and been mainstays in the top 10, and, just to hammer home the point, the pair own the two highest single-season usage rates in NBA history. Meanwhile, Paul owns a career usage rate of 23.9%, well below both Westbrook at 32.7% and Harden at 30.7%. An NBA team having two high usage players is not a death sentence, but when both players are at their best when sporting a high usage rate, it is not the most thoughtful roster construction. The way they play Harden and Westbrook can both be individually great, but neither of their styles elevates the other. In many ways, Westbrook is just a less good version of Harden, and Paul’s playing style and ability complimented Harden’s much better than Westbrook’s does. When every edge counts you want your two best players to make each other better, and it appears Houston willfully parted with that.
During Paul’s two seasons in Houston, the Rockets won 65 and 53 games. While they weren’t able to find postseason success, that had more to do with the Golden State Warriors dynastic run than with their team. Following injuries to Klay Thompson and the departure of Kevin Durant from Golden State the Rockets main adversary, at least temporarily, had been vanquished from within. The Rockets could have reasonably decided to run it back one more time with Chris Paul in the fold and try to make a push for a championship just as they had done the previous two years. The addition of Westbrook has not spurned the Rockets to perform any better. They have a slightly worse winning percentage this year (.625) compared to last (.646), and in a last-ditch effort to maximize their roster traded Clint Capela, Nene, Gerald Green, and their 2020 first-round pick for Robert Covington. That’s coupled with Westbrook having his worst season since he was 21 and Paul bouncing back into the periphery of the top 10. The Thunder are no doubt overjoyed by their end of the deal, considering how their last blockbuster trade with Houston went.
In the Summer of 2012, Houston kicked open a championship window when they acquired, none other than, James Harden from Oklahoma City in a deal that looked an absolute heist at the time and proved to be even greater. The Thunder’s trade had propelled the Rockets into the stars, and, ironically, it may be another trade with the Thunder that will see them come back to earth. Houston got the bad end of the trade in just about every way. Giving up picks and the better player to get a worse contract, the Rockets now find themselves with a worse record and fewer assets. Not only is the team worse this season, but it will be depleted for seasons to come.
The Rockets will tell themselves their championship window is still open, but Harden and Westbrook are 30 and 31, have logged incredible amounts of minutes, and are high usage players. With no draft capital, the Rockets have little ability to add talent and it’s unlikely another superstar player would want to enter a situation with two high-priced high-usage guards entering the twilights of their primes. The Rockets are not good enough now to win a championship and have few if any, avenues to improve. The Rockets missed their chance at a championship with Chris Paul, and by trading him away it all but closes the book on them competing for one in Harden’s prime.
